Thanksgiving Day NFL Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions (Week 12)

13 days ago BettingPros

I want to wish you all a Happy Thanksgiving as we get into a solid three-game slate that has some interesting betting angles. We have one team with a game total well above the field – the Bills at 32.5 points – and a late game that is predicted to be a slow-paced slugfest.

Each year, sportsbooks put out odds on who will lead the slate in passing, receiving and rushing, so, today, I am giving you my best picks for each one. Let’s get this money!

(odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Passing Leader Best Bet: Josh Allen (+240)

While I can certainly poke holes in some other bets on the board for the Bills (they’ve only eclipsed thei32.5-pointnt total twice this year), Allen is a good bet to lead the slate in passing yards on Thursday. I tried to talk myself into Jared Goff or Daniel Jones, but Allen has more 300-yard passing games this year than the other five quarterbacks on the board combined. If betting on a QB to go off Thursday, Allen is the best choice even as the favorite in the field.

The aforementioned total for the Bills is appealing, but so is attacking this Detroit defense. The Lions’ unit has been a sieve against the pass, giving up 280 or more yards on five separate occasions this year. They currently rank 24th in pass DVOA and 31st in yards allowed per pass.

If the Bills’ offense does what Vegas is projecting, Allen should be a big part of it. The 10-point spread is also significant, as Allen is averaging 314 passing yards in games that his team has won by 10 or more points this year. With Allen’s implied Vegas total sitting at 281.5 yards, there isn’t another quarterback on the slate with his ceiling as a passer. 

Receiving Leader Best Bet: Stefon Diggs (+400)

We will stay with the Bills’ offense here, as the Lions have been the Coors Field of fantasy football this year, ranking 25th in total defensive DVOA. They allow 262.2 yards per game through the air and are allowing over 192 yards per game (25th in NFL) to receivers. 

Individually, the Lions have coughed up the following receiving lines thus far:

A.J. Brown: 10/155

D.K. Metcalf: 7/149

Tyreek Hill: 12/188

Jaylen Waddle: 8/106/2

Allen Lazard: 4/87/1

Wan’Dale Robinson: 9/100

Darius Slayton: 5/86

Although the Lions have switched to playing more zone coverage in the last couple of weeks, they are still giving up yards in bunches. Diggs ranks third in PFF receiving grade and yards per route against zone coverage this year, meaning he should feast on Thursday.

The squeaky wheel narrative could also apply, coming off a game where Diggs was targeted just five times. With the Bills having a massive 32.5 implied total, I think Diggs is the best bet to lead the slate in receiving yards. I love his over 88.5 prop at -115 as well. Diggs has gone over 88.5 receiving yards in seven out of 10 games so far this season, making him a strong bet to hit the over there.

Rushing Leader Best Bet: Tony Pollard (+500)

I considered favorites Saquon Barkley (+340) and Dalvin Cook (+390), but Pollard has a lot going for him Thursday. The Giants rank 28th in defensive rush DVOA, giving up over 135 rushing yards per game (25th). Meanwhile, the Cowboys feature one of the best offensive lines in football and are fifth in the league in adjusted line yards. They come into the game as big home favorites, which is just an added bonus as their offense should lean heavily on the run.

While Ezekiel Elliott came back from an injury last week, Pollard still saw 15 carries against the Vikings. This was in an overwhelmingly positive game script, but the Cowboys have been installed as early 9.5-point favorite on Thursday. There should be plenty of rushing opportunities for both Elliott and Pollard, but the latter’s explosiveness means he can take one run 80 yards and put this prop out of reach.

It should be noted that the Giants rank dead last in yards allowed per carry, which should give Pollard plenty of chances to get loose. With Barkley in a likely negative game script and Cook in a tough matchup (New England is giving up the seventh-fewest yards to running backs) with a low total, I think Pollard is the best value on the board.

View 5 star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

NFL, Picks
Continue reading...

Read On "BettingPros"
More News On "BettingPros"
22 minutes ago - NBA roundup: Jazz top Warriors on last-second dunk 23 minutes ago - Behind two different Congress fates: Listless, invisible campaign in Gujarat; spirited, focused fight in Himachal 23 minutes ago - Rangers use 4-goal 3rd period to beat Golden Knights 5-1 23 minutes ago - Warriors left stunned after blowing lead in final seconds in Utah 27 minutes ago - Who Is Dating Lil Nas X? Does Lil Nas X have a boyfriend right now? 28 minutes ago - Why did Megan Fox Breakup with MGK after their Engagement? - 30 minutes ago - Congress surges ahead on 37 of 68 seats in Himachal Pradesh 32 minutes ago - Wednesday’s Sports In Brief 32 minutes ago - Top Famous Celebrities and their “Fake News” Story 34 minutes ago - Terra Founder Accuses SBF Of Attacking UST Peg With $1B UST From Genesis 37 minutes ago - WJC’s Ron Lauder Joins Campaign to Have Kanye West’s Music Removed from Streaming Services 44 minutes ago - JURANOVIC JOKE 46 minutes ago - Third-Period Meltdown Leads to Another Home Loss For Golden Knights 46 minutes ago - Comic Con India Heads to Delhi: Here are All Details About the Event 51 minutes ago - MLB world reacts to Padres’ stunning blockbuster signing 56 minutes ago - Gael baseball team will play Clarion-Goldfield/Dows at Field of Dreams 57 minutes ago - Padres, Xander Bogaerts Agree To 11-Year Deal 58 minutes ago - New York Times journalists and staff go on first 24-hour strike in 41 years 59 minutes ago - Ukraine war is going to ‘take a while,’ Putin says as he warns nuclear risk is increasing 1 hour ago - Eetu Makiniemi, San Jose Sharks lose to Vancouver Canucks 1 hour ago - NY Rangers’ Four Third Period Goals Bury Golden Knights, 5-1, As Gallant Enjoys Homecoming Against Former Club Before 17,939 Wednesday 1 hour ago - The Lord of The Rings: The Rings of Power Season 2 Adds Eight New Actors to Cast 1 hour ago - Simone Fontecchio lifts Jazz past Warriors in short-handed matchup 1 hour ago - MLB Free Agency Tracker: Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres Agree on Deal 1 hour ago - NASA Missions Probe Game-changing Cosmic Explosion 1 hour ago - Albatross or not, Judge’s $360M deal was earned 1 hour ago - San Diego stunner: Padres steal Xander Bogaerts from Red Sox with 11-year, $280 million contract 1 hour ago - ‘Their Satanic Majesties Request’: When The Rolling Stones Went Psych 1 hour ago - Google’s Top Trending Searches of 2022 Revealed: See Which Pop Culture Moments Made the List 1 hour ago - New York Times employees strike for 24 hours in labor dispute 1 hour ago - "They Never Flinch" | Fontecchio Hits Game-Winner As Utah Stuns Golden State 1 hour ago - Musicians, bands release sleigh full of new holiday music 1 hour ago - Thompson’s 5-goal game sends Sabres past Blue Jackets 9-4 1 hour ago - NBA-leading Celtics embarrass sloppy Suns in blowout 1 hour ago - NHL Thursday parlay at mega (+1111) odds, today 12/8 1 hour ago - Here's What Stood Out in the Celtics' Win vs. Suns: Dominant Defensive Performance Paves Way to Blowout Victory 1 hour ago - 3 reactions from short-handed Warriors’ horrible yet encouraging last-second loss to Jazz 1 hour ago - Gujarat Election Results 2022 LIVE Updates: Trends show that BJP set to get over 50% of votes 2 hours ago - Gujarat poll results: AAP looks to breach BJP's bastion, emerge as principal challenger of the saffron party 2 hours ago - A list of all NBA teams in alphabetical order and their logos 2 hours ago - Watch: Tempers Flare Down the Stretch as Jazz Steal the Win vs Warriors in the Absence of Stephen Curry 2 hours ago - Kobe Bryant's advice to Kevin Durant: 'Really just don't be a crybaby' 2 hours ago - World Cup winner White warns ‘naive’ S.Africans ahead of Champions Cup debut 2 hours ago - Virginia stays perfect with 83-54 victory at William & Mary 2 hours ago - Courteney Cox Jokes About How ‘Real New Yorkers Eat Pizza’ In Hilarious Video 2 hours ago - NHL world reacts to historic five-goal performance 2 hours ago - Recap: Avs blanked by Bruins 2 hours ago - Elon Musk turns Twitter office rooms into bedrooms for 'tired' employees 2 hours ago - Extreme Natural Events and Climate Change 2 hours ago - Golden State Warriors suffer heartbreaking loss in unbelievabably crazy finish 2 hours ago - 1,100 New York Times Employees to Go on 24-Hour Strike 2 hours ago - After Teaching Him for Free, Michael Jordan’s Hall of Fame Coach Reveals the ‘Hardest Thing He Had To Overcome’ in Golf 2 hours ago - What Makes a Great Gift? 2 hours ago - [latest] Black Clover Movie Latest Spoilers, Leaked Summaries, Plot & More News 2 hours ago - TV and Streaming Viewing Picks for December 8, 2022: how to watch Thursday Night Football 2 hours ago - Rangers’ Kaapo Kakko showing potential, but goals hard to come by 2 hours ago - OMEGA X legal battle against SPIRE begins, CEO Kang Seong Hee defiant to New York Times – Asian Junkie 2 hours ago - Thompson nets 4 in 1st, 5 overall, as Buffalo tops Columbus 2 hours ago - Judge goes back to Yankees as Giants, Padres examine options 2 hours ago - How Streaming Has Rewritten the Script for Movies
free geoip