Each week, I’ll provide my favorite Sunday parlay and my favorite same-game parlay options for each game. Without further ado, here are this week’s parlay picks.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Week 8 Parlay Leg 1: Detroit Lions +3.5 Leg 2: Arizona Cardinals +3.5 Leg 3: Under 40.5 Jets-Patriots
Rather than going the moneyline parlay route, I decided to parlay my three favorite sides and totals of the weekend. This feels like a good buy-low spot on the Lions, as last week’s 24-6 loss to Dallas wasn’t indicative of how close the game really was. Plus, the Miami Dolphins feel a little overrated after beating the Pittsburgh Steelers in an ugly fashion. With D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown healthy, I’d expect Detroit’s offense to get cooking at home.
I’m taking a stab at Kliff Kingsbury’s Cardinals against a Vikings team that’s coming off a bye but feels like an overrated 5-1 squad. The key will be an Arizona defense getting healthier and playing better since its Week 1 blowout loss to Kansas City. The Cardinals rank 21st in DVOA but sixth against the run.
Finally, I’m picking on Zach Wilson and Mac Jones in a game that could be extremely ugly. Neither offense moves the ball well, and you know Bill Belichick will have his defense ready to play after last week’s embarrassing effort.Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) vs. Denver Broncos, Total 39.5 Leg 1: Under 39.5 Leg 2: Travis Etienne over 69.5 rushing yards Leg 3: Courtland Sutton over 52.5 receiving yards
This game has the makings of being a low-scoring affair. I need to see it before I trust this Broncos offense, even with Russell Wilson back under center. However, the Jaguars rank just 18th in pass defense DVOA, opening the door to Courtland Sutton’s bounce-back game. As for Travis Etienne, the backfield is now his with James Robinson in New York. He’s topped this total in his last three games and gets a Denver defense that’s vulnerable against the run.Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5), Total 41.5 Leg 1: Under 41.5 Leg 2: D.J. Moore over 58.5 receiving yards Leg 3: Drake London under 38.5 receiving yards
I bet this total at 42 and still like it down to 41. Atlanta enters the game with a banged-up secondary, and they won’t have A.J. Terrell. While I’m not convinced P.J. Walker is good enough to exploit it, I liked what I saw between him and D.J. Moore last week and am willing to ride that connection again. Drake London was held to one catch in last week’s loss and has topped this total just once in his last four outings.Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Detroit Lions, Total 51.5 Leg 1: Lions +3.5 Leg 2: Over 51.5 Leg 3: Tyreek Hill over 86 receiving yards
Again, this feels like a great buy-low, sell-high spot on two teams that feel relatively even. I do like the probability of points, and we could be in store for another Detroit shootout. The Lions rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, which makes me feel great about Tyreek Hill going over this prop.Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5), Total 49
Player props had not been released for this game. However, I would parlay the Cardinals plus the points and a DeAndre Hopkins over yardage prop. His return paid big dividends last Thursday night, and he’ll face a Vikings secondary that’s just 21st in pass defense DVOA.New England Patriots (-2.5) at New York Jets, Total 40.5 Leg 1: Under 40.5 Leg 2: Zach Wilson anytime INT Leg 3: Zach Wilson under 220.5 passing yards
You can pretty much tell where I’m going with this one. Both offenses rank outside the top 20 in DVOA, while both defenses rank inside the top 10. Expect another ugly game involving the Jets, who have been winning despite lackluster play from their QB. Zach Wilson has kept it clean since his return game against Pittsburgh in Week 4. I think the streak ends here against Belichick. Wilson also hasn’t topped 220 passing yards in his last three games.Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5), Total 43.5 Leg 1: Under 43.5 Leg 2: Kenny Pickett Under 217.5 passing yards
This is not my favorite game on the Week 8 board. However, I expect the Pittsburgh offense to struggle mightily against a Philly defense that ranks fourth in DVOA and 2nd in pass defense DVOA. That spells bad news for Kenny Pickett and Pittsburgh in a hostile environment. However, the Steelers will bring their lunch pails on defense too, and this game could become an ugly slugfest.Las Vegas Raiders (-1) at New Orleans Saints, Total 49.5
This is another game filled with uncertainty. On the surface, it sets up for an explosive affair, as both defenses rank outside the top 20 in DVOA. However, Raiders star receiver Davante Adams hasn’t practiced this week due to an illness, throwing the prop market into question. My play here would be the over 49.5 points and an over on Adams’ receptions and receiving yards, assuming Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore doesn’t go.Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5), Total 43.5 Leg 1: Cowboys -9.5 Leg 2: Tony Pollard over 37.5 rushing yards Leg 3: Dak Prescott over 1.5 passing TDs
It’s rare for me to lay nearly double digits, but this feels like a good spot to buy the Cowboys and fade the Bears, who are coming off a stunning road victory over New England on a short week. Specifically, I want to isolate the Dallas running game against a Bears defense that ranks 24th in run defense DVOA. With Ezekiel Elliott unlikely to play, this prop is way too low on Pollard. I’d also expect Prescott to throw for a couple of scores after shaking off the rust last week.Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Houston Texans, Total 40.5 Leg 1: Under 40.5 Leg 2: Derrick Henry over 98.5 rushing yards
This is another game I don’t really want any part of. Ryan Tannehill could be injured for Tennessee, and it might not matter. Derrick Henry should eat against a Texans defense that ranks dead last in rush defense DVOA. However, the Titans’ offense is averaging just 19 points per game thus far and has one of the worst receiving corps in the league. This should be an ugly divisional contest you won’t want to watch.San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams, Total 43
This game has a very limited prop menu as of writing, as there are injury concerns on both sides. However, Kyle Shanahan has Sean McVay’s number, and I’d expect his superior team to win the battle in the trenches. I’ll take the Niners -1.5 and an over on Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yardage total.Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-3), Total 39.5 Leg 1: Washington +3 Leg 2: Under 39.5 Leg 3: Under Jonathan Taylor rushing yards
Once again, there is uncertainty with the prop market for this game as Indianapolis makes the change from Matt Ryan to Sam Ehlinger. I’ll gladly take the field goal with road underdogs. I’d also hit a Jonathan Taylor under, as Washington ranks 4th in run defense DVOA.New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-3), Total 44.5 Leg 1: Seahawks -3 Leg 2: Kenneth Walker over rushing yards
Another game without a prop menu this late in the week. However, I suspect New York’s run ending in Seattle. The Seahawks have proven to be a legitimately decent team, if not better. And New York can’t ride this run of luck forever. The G-men are a good team, but they’ve been fortunate to come away with a few wins as of late. Walker should lead the way against a Giants defense that’s 30th in run defense DVOA.Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (-11.5), Total 48 Leg 1: Packers +11.5 Leg 2: Josh Allen under 276.5 passing yards
Is this the bottom of the market for Green Bay? I sure hope so. A couple of weeks ago, you would’ve laughed if I told you Aaron Rodgers was getting 11.5 points. But the Packers have struggled mightily as of late. However, did you know their offense still ranks 10th in DVOA despite that? Also, Green Bay’s bend-don’t-break defensive scheme is suitable for this type of matchup. The Packers’ defense should be highly motivated and prevent Buffalo’s offense from making big plays, capping Josh Allen’s upside.
And check out our Week 8 game previews and picks:
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