NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 12

13 days ago RotoGrinders

NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 12

In 2021, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in this weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats and have carried that success into the early portion of the 2022 schedule – posting a 78-44-1 (63.9%) record through six weeks. Since Week 13 of last season, this article is 174-81-1 (68.2%) picking winners straight up!

In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, our streak of seven consecutive weeks with 10-plus correct picks came to an end due to an abundance of chaos, including the Cleveland Browns blowing 13-point lead in the final two minutes, and the Las Vegas Raiders failing to hold onto a 23-point second-half cushion. In Week 3, we correctly selected six underdogs en route to a 13-3 showing. In Week 4, we hit each of our top four selections, in addition to correctly nailing five underdogs. In Week 5, favorites dominated, and we won on 11 of our selections. In Week 6, we managed another positive week, despite a number of unexpected results around the league. In Week 7, we finished only 7-7, but six of our top eight selections won, salvaging the slate for confidence pool participants. In Week 8, we had our second-best week of the year, which included hitting each of our top seven selections! Week 9 was our second consecutive week with double-digit victories, despite multiple teams being on a bye. In Week 10, we took a beating thanks to a couple of major upsets, but bounced-back, as promised, in Week 11 – hitting each of our top-seven plays, including 11-of-14 overall! In Week 12, we will look to continue our positive momentum.

2022 NFL Pick’em selections!

In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit, ensuring that there was not anyone more prepared to tackle the weekly slate this fall.

I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.


Week 12 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings

2022 Weekly Results Week 1: 10-5-1 Week 2: 8-8 Week 3: 13-3 Week 4: 9-7 Week 5: 11-5 Week 6: 8-6 Week 7: 7-7 Week 8: 12-3 Week 9: 10-3 Week 10: 7-7 Week 11: 11-3

2021 Weekly Results Week 1: 10-6 Week 2: 10-6 Week 3: 15-1 Week 4: 9-7 Week 5: 13-3 Week 6: 9-5 Week 7: 10-3 Week 8: 8-7 Week 9: 9-5 Week 10: 5-8-1 Week 11: 8-7 Week 12: 7-8 Week 13: 11-3 Week 14: 12-2 Week 15: 11-5 Week 16: 11-5 Week 17: 13-3 Week 18: 10-6

Week 12 Selections

1. Miami Dolphins
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Dallas Cowboys
6. Buffalo Bills
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. New England Patriots
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. Tennessee Titans
11. Las Vegas Raiders
12. Denver Broncos
13. Washington Commanders
14. New York Jets
15. Los Angeles Chargers
16. Pittsburgh Steelers


Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 12

Dolphins (vs. Texans)

If bettors remove a Week 4 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, during which played only the first half before leaving with an injury – the Miami Dolphins are undefeated this season when Tagovailoa is under center. Through 11 weeks of the schedule, Tagovailoa leads all qualified signal callers, by a wide margin, in EPA/play, and ranks second to in success rate. Since Tagovailoa returned to the field in Week 7, the Dolphins lead the league in offensive EPA/play as a team. In that same time period, the Houston Texans rank 30th in offensive EPA/play. Even if the Texans’ defense manages to play reasonably well, it is highly doubtful that and company will be able to score enough points to make this game too competitive.

Chiefs (vs. Rams)

The Kansas City Chiefs continue to prove on a weekly basis that they are the best team in the NFL, which should give bettors confidence to put them high on their Week 12 confidence rankings. Entering play this weekend, the Chiefs have the league’s best offensive EPA/play as a team, led by , who ranks 1st in passing yards, 1st in passing touchdowns, and 2nd in QBR among qualified quarterbacks. The return of Trent McDuffie to the secondary unit has helped to balance the performance of this roster on both sides of the ball, with Kansas City ranking a much-improved 12th in defensive Dropback EPA/play since McDuffie rejoined the team in Week 9. The Los Angeles Rams simply have very little going for them at the moment, having lost four consecutive contests to the San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, and New Orleans Saints. The Chiefs are trending towards the top of the NFL power rankings while the Rams are spiraling to the top of this summer’s draft, making this one of the easier games to pick on this week’s slate.

Eagles (vs. Packers)

The Philadelphia Eagles did not look great in their Week 11 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, but they showed impressive fortitude only six days after their defense played 81 snaps and was on the field for over 40 minutes against the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football. The primary weakness of the Eagles is their run defense, which ranks 24th in opponent yards-per-carry and 29th in Rush EPA/play this fall. However, this should not be a major concern against a Green Bay Packers offense that ranks only 14th in rush yards per game this season. If Philadelphia can get an early lead in this matchup, they should be able to force Green Bay into a pass-heavy game script, which will be enough for the Eagles to come away with a win.

49ers (vs. Saints)

The San Francisco 49ers have flown under the radar for much of 2022, perhaps due in part to the season-ending injury of early in the season. The 49ers enter play in Week 12 with only a 6-4 record, but the advanced metrics, especially in recent weeks, indicate that this team is far better than their current record implies. The primary concern in this spot for San Francisco is the fact that they will be playing on a short week after having faced the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football in Week 11. Still, the New Orleans Saints only barely came away with a victory over the hapless Los Angeles Rams this past weekend, and have far less talent on their roster compared the the 49ers. If San Francisco can play a clean game, they should be able to do enough to get to 7-4.

Cowboys (vs. Giants)

As of this writing, there is a healthy amount of uncertainty regarding the status of a number of key players on the defensive side of the ball for the Dallas Cowboys, including Micah Parsons, who is the top sack-threat for this unit. Assuming that Parsons plays after logging a limited participation in the final practice of the week, Dallas should emerge with a comfortable win in this spot. Though there are concerns for the Cowboys’ defense if they end up without a few key players, the offensive line is an even larger issue for the New York Giants. Jon Feliciano, Joshua Ezeudu, and Shane Lemieux have already been ruled out for this intra-division Thanksgiving affair, with Tyre Phillips and premier left tackle Andrew Thomas each listed as questionable. If Thomas does not suit-up, it is difficult to see New York’s offense having much, if any, success on Thursday. Further supporting a Dallas win in Week 12 is the fact that New York ranks 31st in opponent yards-per-carry this season, which is likely to be particularly problematic against a dangerous Cowboys’ backfield that features and . Expect Dallas to do enough to get a win here, assuming there are no last-minute surprises on the injury report.

Image Credit: Imagn
Continue reading...

Read On "RotoGrinders"

More News On "RotoGrinders"
7 minutes ago - San Diego stunner: Padres steal Xander Bogaerts from Red Sox with 11-year, $280 million contract 11 minutes ago - ‘Their Satanic Majesties Request’: When The Rolling Stones Went Psych 18 minutes ago - Google’s Top Trending Searches of 2022 Revealed: See Which Pop Culture Moments Made the List 29 minutes ago - New York Times employees strike for 24 hours in labor dispute 29 minutes ago - "They Never Flinch" | Fontecchio Hits Game-Winner As Utah Stuns Golden State 31 minutes ago - Musicians, bands release sleigh full of new holiday music 32 minutes ago - Thompson’s 5-goal game sends Sabres past Blue Jackets 9-4 34 minutes ago - NBA-leading Celtics embarrass sloppy Suns in blowout 34 minutes ago - NHL Thursday parlay at mega (+1111) odds, today 12/8 35 minutes ago - Here's What Stood Out in the Celtics' Win vs. Suns: Dominant Defensive Performance Paves Way to Blowout Victory 38 minutes ago - 3 reactions from short-handed Warriors’ horrible yet encouraging last-second loss to Jazz 41 minutes ago - Gujarat Election Results 2022 LIVE Updates: Trends show that BJP set to get over 50% of votes 44 minutes ago - Gujarat poll results: AAP looks to breach BJP's bastion, emerge as principal challenger of the saffron party 45 minutes ago - A list of all NBA teams in alphabetical order and their logos 47 minutes ago - Watch: Tempers Flare Down the Stretch as Jazz Steal the Win vs Warriors in the Absence of Stephen Curry 50 minutes ago - Kobe Bryant's advice to Kevin Durant: 'Really just don't be a crybaby' 51 minutes ago - World Cup winner White warns ‘naive’ S.Africans ahead of Champions Cup debut 51 minutes ago - Virginia stays perfect with 83-54 victory at William & Mary 53 minutes ago - Courteney Cox Jokes About How ‘Real New Yorkers Eat Pizza’ In Hilarious Video 1 hour ago - NHL world reacts to historic five-goal performance 1 hour ago - Recap: Avs blanked by Bruins 1 hour ago - Elon Musk turns Twitter office rooms into bedrooms for 'tired' employees 1 hour ago - Extreme Natural Events and Climate Change 1 hour ago - Golden State Warriors suffer heartbreaking loss in unbelievabably crazy finish 1 hour ago - 1,100 New York Times Employees to Go on 24-Hour Strike 1 hour ago - After Teaching Him for Free, Michael Jordan’s Hall of Fame Coach Reveals the ‘Hardest Thing He Had To Overcome’ in Golf 1 hour ago - What Makes a Great Gift? 1 hour ago - [latest] Black Clover Movie Latest Spoilers, Leaked Summaries, Plot & More News 1 hour ago - TV and Streaming Viewing Picks for December 8, 2022: how to watch Thursday Night Football 1 hour ago - Rangers’ Kaapo Kakko showing potential, but goals hard to come by 1 hour ago - OMEGA X legal battle against SPIRE begins, CEO Kang Seong Hee defiant to New York Times – Asian Junkie 1 hour ago - Thompson nets 4 in 1st, 5 overall, as Buffalo tops Columbus 1 hour ago - Judge goes back to Yankees as Giants, Padres examine options 1 hour ago - How Streaming Has Rewritten the Script for Movies 1 hour ago - Capitals finish season-long road trip 3-2-1 to stay afloat in East 1 hour ago - Quick Recap: Ja Morant sets franchise-record for triple doubles in win over Thunder 1 hour ago - What kind of company do the striking HarperCollins workers face? 1 hour ago - 'The Amazing Race' Finale: 'Big Brother' couple Derek Xiao and Claire Rehfuss win Season 34 1 hour ago - Watch Durant, Irving combine for 62 points to lift Nets past Hornets 1 hour ago - 2023 Original Song Contenders (Part 3) 1 hour ago - NBA roundup: Magic halt skid with OT win over Clippers 1 hour ago - Clippers vs. Heat Odds, Pick, Prediction: Offense Likely Limited in Miami (December 8) 2 hours ago - The Amazing Race 34: Derek Xiao and Claire Rehfuss Winner Interview (2022) 2 hours ago - Richmond NGA product at home with Tigers' VFL program 2 hours ago - Giannis Antetokounmpo, Since ‘The Ladder Incident’, has averaged 36 and Tied 7’2″ Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 2 hours ago - Jazz Take Third Quarter Lead With Three Point Barrage 2 hours ago - Tigers trade Joe Jimenez for top-rated position player in Braves' system 2 hours ago - Knicks Light Up Injury-Riddled Hawks 2 hours ago - New York Times journalists will stage historic 24-hour strike after management and union fail to reach deal 2 hours ago - Avatar’s James Cameron on art, AI and outrage 3 hours ago - Ex-Theranos president Ramesh Balwani gets 13-year prison term in fraud case 3 hours ago - Sabres' Tage Thompson torments Blue Jackets with 5-point first period 3 hours ago - New York Times braces for 24-hour newsroom strike 3 hours ago - Exclusive For Boost Users! Stand The Chance To Win Tickets For Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] Kuala Lumpur When Redeeming RM2 Rewards 3 hours ago - America’s most Googled term in 2022 is puzzling 3 hours ago - Edey stands tall as No. 4 Boilermakers rout Hofstra 85-66 3 hours ago - KEN PERROTTE: Canadian gun-control push should concern US gun-rights advocates 3 hours ago - CTB vs WF Dream11 Prediction, Fantasy Cricket Tips, Dream11 Team, Playing XI, Pitch Report, Injury Update- The Ford Trophy 4 hours ago - Germany busts far-right cell plotting to ‘overthrow state’ 4 hours ago - Some New York Times Employees Will Go On Strike For 24 Hours
free geoip