4 months ago
BettingPros
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 11 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the Mexico game, the Cardinals are technically the home team.)
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Nov. 23, at 4 pm ET.
Home Team Road Team Consensus Line Freedman Line Projected Edge DET BUF 9.5 7.75 -1.75 DAL NYG -10 -8.5 1.5 MIN NE -2.5 -2 0.5 CAR DEN 2 2.5 0.5 MIA HOU -13.5 -13.75 -0.25 NYJ CHI -4.5 -3.75 0.75 CLE TB 3.5 3.5 0 JAX BAL 4 2.75 -1.25 WAS ATL -4.5 -2.5 2 TEN CIN 2 0.5 -1.5 ARI LAC 3.5 3 -0.5 SEA LV -3.5 -4.5 -1 KC LAR -14.5 -14.25 0.25 SF NO -9.5 -8 1.5 PHI GB -6.5 -6.5 0 IND PIT -2.5 -3.5 -1
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I’m willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.
Falcons +4.5 at Commanders Titans +2 vs. Bengals Seahawks -3.5 vs. RaidersHere are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
Check out our Falcons at Commanders matchup page.
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 1 pm ET Location: FedExField TV: FOXFalcons at Commanders: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 23.
Spread: Falcons +4.5 Betting Percentages: Commanders – 56% bets, 75% moneyFalcons at Commanders: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
Falcons ATS: 7-4 (21.6% ROI) Commanders ATS: 6-4-1 (13.1% ROI)Falcons at Commanders: Notable Trend QB Marcus Mariota: 6-2 ATS (43.3% ROI) as underdog with Falcons
Falcons at Commanders: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Falcons Offense vs. Commanders Defense Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge EPA per Play 0.024 15 -0.051 7 -8 Total SR 46.5% 11 40.1% 2 -9 Total DVOA 6.3% 12 -5.8% 12 0 Dropback EPA 0.055 15 0.01 9 -6 Dropback SR 48.6% 10 42.7% 4 -6 Pass DVOA 13.9% 15 5.3% 16 1 Adj. Sack Rate 9.6% 30 7.9% 12 -18 Rush EPA -0.005 6 -0.156 3 -3 Rush SR 44.4% 5 35.5% 4 -1 Rush DVOA 5.1% 8 -22.0% 2 -6 Adj. Line Yards 4.84 4 4.09 7 3 Yards per Play 5.4 16 5.2 9 -7 Points per Game 23.5 12 20.3 12 0
Commanders Offense vs. Falcons Defense Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge EPA per Play -0.061 25 0.079 28 3 Total SR 40.7% 28 49.0% 31 3 Total DVOA -13.1% 27 10.8% 28 1 Dropback EPA -0.051 26 0.129 28 2 Dropback SR 42.4% 28 52.0% 30 2 Pass DVOA -5.8% 28 18.4% 28 0 Adj. Sack Rate 8.3% 20 4.6% 30 10 Rush EPA -0.076 22 0.006 26 4 Rush SR 38.3% 25 44.6% 26 1 Rush DVOA -14.9% 25 1.2% 24 -1 Adj. Line Yards 4.09 28 4.77 27 -1 Yards per Play 4.8 29 5.9 28 -1 Points per Game 19.5 23 24.9 27 4
Falcons at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 176 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Marcus Mariota Metric Output Rank EPA + CPOE 0.087 15 AY/A 7.3 11 QBR 57.1 11 ATS Value vs. Avg. -0.7 27
Career: Marcus Mariota AY/A: 7.2 QB Elo per Game: -13.6
2022: Taylor Heinicke Metric Output Rank EPA + CPOE 0.054 23 AY/A 6.4 23 ATS Value vs. Avg. -1.6 34
Career: Taylor Heinicke AY/A: 6.2 QB Elo per Game: -36.0
Key Takeaway: These Teams Are Even
Many power ratings have these two teams as close to even. For example …
In my personal power ratings (before taking Week 12-specific injuries into account), I have the Commanders at -2 and the Falcons at -3 relative to an average team on a neutral field.
There’s not much that separates these teams, and they match up evenly.
On offense, the Commanders are No. 27 in DVOA; on defense, the Falcons are No. 28.
On defense, the Commanders are No. 12 in DVOA; on offense, the Falcons are also No. 12.
In the running and passing games, no large edges present themselves for either team.
And it’s not as if the Commanders have a remarkable home-field advantage.
I don’t see why this line should be above the key number of +3.
Best Line: Falcons +4.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Falcons +3.5 (-115)
Personal Projection: Falcons +2.5
Check out our Bengals at Titans matchup page.
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 1 pm ET Location: Nissan Stadium TV: CBSBengals at Titans: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 23.
Spread: Titans +2 Betting Percentages: Bengals – 39% bets, 83% moneyBengals at Titans: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
Bengals ATS: 7-3 (33.6% ROI) Titans ATS: 8-2 (54.1% ROI)Bengals at Titans: Notable Trends HC Mike Vrabel: 22-12 ATS (24.4% ROI) as underdog HC Mike Vrabel: 9-4 ATS (32.8% ROI) as home underdog
Bengals at Titans: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Bengals Offense vs. Titans Defense Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge EPA per Play 0.108 4 -0.024 12 8 Total SR 48.6% 4 40.1% 2 -2 Total DVOA 9.0% 8 -8.6% 9 1 Dropback EPA 0.179 4 0.035 12 8 Dropback SR 50.8% 5 43.6% 8 3 Pass DVOA 20.2% 10 2.5% 13 3 Adj. Sack Rate 8.6% 23 7.3% 18 -5 Rush EPA -0.034 12 -0.168 1 -11 Rush SR 44.1% 7 31.4% 1 -6 Rush DVOA 5.1% 9 -31.2% 1 -8 Adj. Line Yards 4.50 14 3.45 1 -13 Yards per Play 5.6 12 5.4 14 2 Points per Game 26.5 3 18.5 8 5
Titans Offense vs. Bengals Defense Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge EPA per Play -0.009 21 -0.025 11 -10 Total SR 43.2% 19 42.4% 9 -10 Total DVOA 0.0% 18 -4.3% 13 -5 Dropback EPA 0.064 14 -0.033 7 -7 Dropback SR 47.3% 13 42.7% 4 -9 Pass DVOA 16.5% 12 -3.0% 10 -2 Adj. Sack Rate 9.2% 27 4.9% 28 1 Rush EPA -0.083 25 -0.013 24 -1 Rush SR 38.9% 23 41.9% 17 -6 Rush DVOA -1.1% 14 -5.8% 16 2 Adj. Line Yards 4.64 7 4.53 20 13 Yards per Play 5.2 19 5.3 12 -7 Points per Game 19.3 24 21.5 15 -9
Bengals at Titans: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 176 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Joe Burrow Metric Output Rank EPA + CPOE 0.142 5 AY/A 8 7 QBR 55.7 12 ATS Value vs. Avg. 2.7 5
Career: Joe Burrow AY/A: 8.0 QB Elo per Game: 36.8
2022: Ryan Tannehill Metric Output Rank EPA + CPOE 0.106 10 AY/A 8.2 6 QBR 53.1 16 ATS Value vs. Avg. -0.3 23
Career: Ryan Tannehill AY/A: 7.2 QB Elo per Game: -4.8
Key Takeaway: The Titans Have the Peripheral Edge
I have the Bengals rated two points higher (before adjusting for Week 12-specific injuries) — but the Titans have a few factors in their favor.
First, they have three extra days of rest after playing last week on Thursday Night Football — and HC Mike Vrabel is 9-0 ATS with 10-plus days between games in the regular season.
Additionally, Vrabel’s Titans have been strong as underdogs (22-12 ATS), as noted above, and they’ve been especially strong as home dogs (9-4 ATS).
Finally, the Titans have had an unreal home-field advantage of 7.02 points over the past 16 weeks (per NFElo). Now, I’m certainly not assigning them a home-field advantage that strong. Regression will strike eventually.
But Nissan Stadium has not been an easy place to play for visitors since the Titans’ stretch run last year, and that shouldn’t be ignored.
Put all of that together, and I have this game as close to a pick’em.
Best Line: Titans +2.5 (-112, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Titans +2.5 (-112)
Personal Projection: Titans +0.5
Check out our Raiders at Seahawks matchup page.
Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 4:05 pm ET Location: Lumen Field TV: CBSRaiders at Seahawks: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 23.
Spread: Seahawks -3.5 Betting Percentages: Seahawks – 68% bets, 71% moneyRaiders at Seahawks: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
Raiders ATS: 4-6 (-22.1% ROI) Seahawks ATS: 6-4 (14.2% ROI)Raiders at Seahawks: Notable Trend QB Geno Smith: 5-1 ATS (60.7% ROI) at home with Seahawks
Raiders at Seahawks: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Raiders Offense vs. Seahawks Defense Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge EPA per Play 0.026 13 0.04 21 8 Total SR 42.7% 21 41.6% 7 -14 Total DVOA 4.0% 15 1.4% 17 2 Dropback EPA 0.092 12 0.107 24 12 Dropback SR 43.0% 26 45.0% 12 -14 Pass DVOA 10.4% 18 7.1% 17 -1 Adj. Sack Rate 6.3% 11 8.1% 10 -1 Rush EPA -0.096 27 -0.058 17 -10 Rush SR 42.3% 12 36.6% 5 -7 Rush DVOA 5.5% 6 -5.4% 17 11 Adj. Line Yards 5.10 1 4.47 18 17 Yards per Play 5.6 12 5.5 16 4 Points per Game 22.5 16 24.1 22 6
Seahawks Offense vs. Raiders Defense Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge EPA per Play 0.063 8 0.091 29 21 Total SR 46.1% 12 48.5% 29 17 Total DVOA 10.5% 7 17.2% 32 25 Dropback EPA 0.119 7 0.224 32 25 Dropback SR 52.5% 3 52.5% 31 28 Pass DVOA 31.5% 4 32.5% 32 28 Adj. Sack Rate 8.8% 24 4.6% 30 6 Rush EPA -0.033 11 -0.105 7 -4 Rush SR 35.1% 31 42.5% 20 -11 Rush DVOA -5.1% 20 -1.5% 22 2 Adj. Line Yards 4.23 21 4.32 14 -7 Yards per Play 6 4 5.9 28 24 Points per Game 25.7 5 24.2 24 19
Raiders at Seahawks: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 176 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Derek Carr Metric Output Rank EPA + CPOE 0.079 17 AY/A 7.2 13 QBR 59.1 8 ATS Value vs. Avg. 0.4 16
Career: Derek Carr AY/A: 7.1 QB Elo per Game: -4.3
2022: Geno Smith Metric Output Rank EPA + CPOE 0.149 4 AY/A 8.3 5 QBR 67.3 4 ATS Value vs. Avg. 1.7 11
Career: Geno Smith AY/A: 6.5 QB Elo per Game: -36.3
Key Matchup: Seahawks Pass Offense vs. Raiders Pass Defense
In my personal unit power rankings, I have QB Geno Smith slotted in the top eight at the position — and the Raiders are my No. 32 secondary.
The matchup of Seahawks pass offense vs. Raiders pass defense could hardly be more skewed.
Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge Dropback EPA 0.119 7 0.224 32 25 Dropback SR 0.525 3 0.525 31 28 Pass DVOA 0.315 4 0.325 32 28
Given that the Seahawks are off the bye and at home, where they have a true advantage with the raucous 12th man, I see them winning by more than a field goal.
Best Line: Seahawks -3.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Seahawks -3.5 (-106)
Personal Projection: Seahawks -4.5
Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Chargers -2.5 at Cardinals Falcons +4.5 at Commanders Titans +2 vs. Bengals Seahawks -3.5 vs. Raiders Giants +10.5 at CowboysOne complicating factor: Like many others, I had my DraftKings account hacked early this week — and I’m still unable to access it. So there’s a good chance I won’t be entering any Thanksgiving games into the contest.
Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
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