Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 12 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

13 days ago BettingPros

In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.

I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player

Week 11 Record Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-5 (+2.55 units) Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2

Year-to-Date Record Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 77-63-2 (+7.9 units) Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 28-22

All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

Freedman’s Week 12 Projections Against the Spread

Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 11 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the Mexico game, the Cardinals are technically the home team.)

Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Nov. 23, at 4 pm ET. 

Home Team Road Team Consensus Line Freedman Line Projected Edge DET BUF 9.5 7.75 -1.75 DAL NYG -10 -8.5 1.5 MIN NE -2.5 -2 0.5 CAR DEN 2 2.5 0.5 MIA HOU -13.5 -13.75 -0.25 NYJ CHI -4.5 -3.75 0.75 CLE TB 3.5 3.5 0 JAX BAL 4 2.75 -1.25 WAS ATL -4.5 -2.5 2 TEN CIN 2 0.5 -1.5 ARI LAC 3.5 3 -0.5 SEA LV -3.5 -4.5 -1 KC LAR -14.5 -14.25 0.25 SF NO -9.5 -8 1.5 PHI GB -6.5 -6.5 0 IND PIT -2.5 -3.5 -1

 

Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I’m willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.

Falcons +4.5 at Commanders Titans +2 vs. Bengals Seahawks -3.5 vs. Raiders

Freedman’s Week 12 ATS Bet Breakdowns

Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

Check out our Falcons at Commanders matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 1 pm ET Location: FedExField TV: FOX

Falcons at Commanders: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages

Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 23.

Spread: Falcons +4.5 Betting Percentages: Commanders – 56% bets, 75% money

Falcons at Commanders: 2022 ATS Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

Falcons ATS: 7-4 (21.6% ROI) Commanders ATS: 6-4-1 (13.1% ROI)

Falcons at Commanders: Notable Trend QB Marcus Mariota: 6-2 ATS (43.3% ROI) as underdog with Falcons

Falcons at Commanders: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Falcons Offense vs. Commanders Defense Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge EPA per Play 0.024 15 -0.051 7 -8 Total SR 46.5% 11 40.1% 2 -9 Total DVOA 6.3% 12 -5.8% 12 0 Dropback EPA 0.055 15 0.01 9 -6 Dropback SR 48.6% 10 42.7% 4 -6 Pass DVOA 13.9% 15 5.3% 16 1 Adj. Sack Rate 9.6% 30 7.9% 12 -18 Rush EPA -0.005 6 -0.156 3 -3 Rush SR 44.4% 5 35.5% 4 -1 Rush DVOA 5.1% 8 -22.0% 2 -6 Adj. Line Yards 4.84 4 4.09 7 3 Yards per Play 5.4 16 5.2 9 -7 Points per Game 23.5 12 20.3 12 0

 

Commanders Offense vs. Falcons Defense Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge EPA per Play -0.061 25 0.079 28 3 Total SR 40.7% 28 49.0% 31 3 Total DVOA -13.1% 27 10.8% 28 1 Dropback EPA -0.051 26 0.129 28 2 Dropback SR 42.4% 28 52.0% 30 2 Pass DVOA -5.8% 28 18.4% 28 0 Adj. Sack Rate 8.3% 20 4.6% 30 10 Rush EPA -0.076 22 0.006 26 4 Rush SR 38.3% 25 44.6% 26 1 Rush DVOA -14.9% 25 1.2% 24 -1 Adj. Line Yards 4.09 28 4.77 27 -1 Yards per Play 4.8 29 5.9 28 -1 Points per Game 19.5 23 24.9 27 4

 

Falcons at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 176 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Marcus Mariota Metric Output Rank EPA + CPOE 0.087 15 AY/A 7.3 11 QBR 57.1 11 ATS Value vs. Avg. -0.7 27

 

Career: Marcus Mariota AY/A: 7.2 QB Elo per Game: -13.6

2022: Taylor Heinicke Metric Output Rank EPA + CPOE 0.054 23 AY/A 6.4 23 ATS Value vs. Avg. -1.6 34

 

Career: Taylor Heinicke AY/A: 6.2 QB Elo per Game: -36.0

Key Takeaway: These Teams Are Even

Many power ratings have these two teams as close to even. For example …

In my personal power ratings (before taking Week 12-specific injuries into account), I have the Commanders at -2 and the Falcons at -3 relative to an average team on a neutral field.

There’s not much that separates these teams, and they match up evenly.

On offense, the Commanders are No. 27 in DVOA; on defense, the Falcons are No. 28.

On defense, the Commanders are No. 12 in DVOA; on offense, the Falcons are also No. 12.

In the running and passing games, no large edges present themselves for either team.

And it’s not as if the Commanders have a remarkable home-field advantage.

I don’t see why this line should be above the key number of +3.

Best Line: Falcons +4.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Falcons +3.5 (-115)
Personal Projection: Falcons +2.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

Check out our Bengals at Titans matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 1 pm ET Location: Nissan Stadium TV: CBS

Bengals at Titans: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages

Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 23.

Spread: Titans +2 Betting Percentages: Bengals – 39% bets, 83% money

Bengals at Titans: 2022 ATS Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

Bengals ATS: 7-3 (33.6% ROI) Titans ATS: 8-2 (54.1% ROI)

Bengals at Titans: Notable Trends HC Mike Vrabel: 22-12 ATS (24.4% ROI) as underdog HC Mike Vrabel: 9-4 ATS (32.8% ROI) as home underdog

Bengals at Titans: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Bengals Offense vs. Titans Defense Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge EPA per Play 0.108 4 -0.024 12 8 Total SR 48.6% 4 40.1% 2 -2 Total DVOA 9.0% 8 -8.6% 9 1 Dropback EPA 0.179 4 0.035 12 8 Dropback SR 50.8% 5 43.6% 8 3 Pass DVOA 20.2% 10 2.5% 13 3 Adj. Sack Rate 8.6% 23 7.3% 18 -5 Rush EPA -0.034 12 -0.168 1 -11 Rush SR 44.1% 7 31.4% 1 -6 Rush DVOA 5.1% 9 -31.2% 1 -8 Adj. Line Yards 4.50 14 3.45 1 -13 Yards per Play 5.6 12 5.4 14 2 Points per Game 26.5 3 18.5 8 5

 

Titans Offense vs. Bengals Defense Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge EPA per Play -0.009 21 -0.025 11 -10 Total SR 43.2% 19 42.4% 9 -10 Total DVOA 0.0% 18 -4.3% 13 -5 Dropback EPA 0.064 14 -0.033 7 -7 Dropback SR 47.3% 13 42.7% 4 -9 Pass DVOA 16.5% 12 -3.0% 10 -2 Adj. Sack Rate 9.2% 27 4.9% 28 1 Rush EPA -0.083 25 -0.013 24 -1 Rush SR 38.9% 23 41.9% 17 -6 Rush DVOA -1.1% 14 -5.8% 16 2 Adj. Line Yards 4.64 7 4.53 20 13 Yards per Play 5.2 19 5.3 12 -7 Points per Game 19.3 24 21.5 15 -9

 

Bengals at Titans: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 176 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Joe Burrow Metric Output Rank EPA + CPOE 0.142 5 AY/A 8 7 QBR 55.7 12 ATS Value vs. Avg. 2.7 5

 

Career: Joe Burrow AY/A: 8.0 QB Elo per Game: 36.8

2022: Ryan Tannehill Metric Output Rank EPA + CPOE 0.106 10 AY/A 8.2 6 QBR 53.1 16 ATS Value vs. Avg. -0.3 23

 

Career: Ryan Tannehill AY/A: 7.2 QB Elo per Game: -4.8

Key Takeaway: The Titans Have the Peripheral Edge

I have the Bengals rated two points higher (before adjusting for Week 12-specific injuries) — but the Titans have a few factors in their favor.

First, they have three extra days of rest after playing last week on Thursday Night Football — and HC Mike Vrabel is 9-0 ATS with 10-plus days between games in the regular season.

Additionally, Vrabel’s Titans have been strong as underdogs (22-12 ATS), as noted above, and they’ve been especially strong as home dogs (9-4 ATS).

Finally, the Titans have had an unreal home-field advantage of 7.02 points over the past 16 weeks (per NFElo). Now, I’m certainly not assigning them a home-field advantage that strong. Regression will strike eventually.

But Nissan Stadium has not been an easy place to play for visitors since the Titans’ stretch run last year, and that shouldn’t be ignored.

Put all of that together, and I have this game as close to a pick’em.

Best Line: Titans +2.5 (-112, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Titans +2.5 (-112)
Personal Projection: Titans +0.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks

Check out our Raiders at Seahawks matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 4:05 pm ET Location: Lumen Field TV: CBS

Raiders at Seahawks: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages

Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 23.

Spread: Seahawks -3.5 Betting Percentages: Seahawks – 68% bets, 71% money

Raiders at Seahawks: 2022 ATS Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

Raiders ATS: 4-6 (-22.1% ROI) Seahawks  ATS: 6-4 (14.2% ROI)

Raiders at Seahawks: Notable Trend QB Geno Smith: 5-1 ATS (60.7% ROI) at home with Seahawks

Raiders at Seahawks: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Raiders Offense vs. Seahawks Defense Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge EPA per Play 0.026 13 0.04 21 8 Total SR 42.7% 21 41.6% 7 -14 Total DVOA 4.0% 15 1.4% 17 2 Dropback EPA 0.092 12 0.107 24 12 Dropback SR 43.0% 26 45.0% 12 -14 Pass DVOA 10.4% 18 7.1% 17 -1 Adj. Sack Rate 6.3% 11 8.1% 10 -1 Rush EPA -0.096 27 -0.058 17 -10 Rush SR 42.3% 12 36.6% 5 -7 Rush DVOA 5.5% 6 -5.4% 17 11 Adj. Line Yards 5.10 1 4.47 18 17 Yards per Play 5.6 12 5.5 16 4 Points per Game 22.5 16 24.1 22 6

 

Seahawks Offense vs. Raiders Defense Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge EPA per Play 0.063 8 0.091 29 21 Total SR 46.1% 12 48.5% 29 17 Total DVOA 10.5% 7 17.2% 32 25 Dropback EPA 0.119 7 0.224 32 25 Dropback SR 52.5% 3 52.5% 31 28 Pass DVOA 31.5% 4 32.5% 32 28 Adj. Sack Rate 8.8% 24 4.6% 30 6 Rush EPA -0.033 11 -0.105 7 -4 Rush SR 35.1% 31 42.5% 20 -11 Rush DVOA -5.1% 20 -1.5% 22 2 Adj. Line Yards 4.23 21 4.32 14 -7 Yards per Play 6 4 5.9 28 24 Points per Game 25.7 5 24.2 24 19

 

Raiders at Seahawks: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 176 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Derek Carr Metric Output Rank EPA + CPOE 0.079 17 AY/A 7.2 13 QBR 59.1 8 ATS Value vs. Avg. 0.4 16

 

Career: Derek Carr AY/A: 7.1 QB Elo per Game: -4.3

2022: Geno Smith Metric Output Rank EPA + CPOE 0.149 4 AY/A 8.3 5 QBR 67.3 4 ATS Value vs. Avg. 1.7 11

 

Career: Geno Smith AY/A: 6.5 QB Elo per Game: -36.3

Key Matchup: Seahawks Pass Offense vs. Raiders Pass Defense

In my personal unit power rankings, I have QB Geno Smith slotted in the top eight at the position — and the Raiders are my No. 32 secondary.

The matchup of Seahawks pass offense vs. Raiders pass defense could hardly be more skewed.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge Dropback EPA 0.119 7 0.224 32 25 Dropback SR 0.525 3 0.525 31 28 Pass DVOA 0.315 4 0.325 32 28

 

Given that the Seahawks are off the bye and at home, where they have a true advantage with the raucous 12th man, I see them winning by more than a field goal.

Best Line: Seahawks -3.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Seahawks -3.5 (-106)
Personal Projection: Seahawks -4.5

Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.

Chargers -2.5 at Cardinals Falcons +4.5 at Commanders Titans +2 vs. Bengals Seahawks -3.5 vs. Raiders Giants +10.5 at Cowboys

One complicating factor: Like many others, I had my DraftKings account hacked early this week — and I’m still unable to access it. So there’s a good chance I won’t be entering any Thanksgiving games into the contest.

Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.

Previous Best Bets Pieces

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.

NFL, Picks
Continue reading...

Read On "BettingPros"

More News On "BettingPros"
BREAKING NEWS
10 minutes ago - NHL world reacts to historic five-goal performance 14 minutes ago - Recap: Avs blanked by Bruins 14 minutes ago - Elon Musk turns Twitter office rooms into bedrooms for 'tired' employees 14 minutes ago - Extreme Natural Events and Climate Change 15 minutes ago - Golden State Warriors suffer heartbreaking loss in unbelievabably crazy finish 20 minutes ago - 1,100 New York Times Employees to Go on 24-Hour Strike 25 minutes ago - After Teaching Him for Free, Michael Jordan’s Hall of Fame Coach Reveals the ‘Hardest Thing He Had To Overcome’ in Golf 27 minutes ago - [latest] Black Clover Movie Latest Spoilers, Leaked Summaries, Plot & More News 30 minutes ago - TV and Streaming Viewing Picks for December 8, 2022: how to watch Thursday Night Football 35 minutes ago - Rangers’ Kaapo Kakko showing potential, but goals hard to come by 36 minutes ago - OMEGA X legal battle against SPIRE begins, CEO Kang Seong Hee defiant to New York Times – Asian Junkie 37 minutes ago - Thompson nets 4 in 1st, 5 overall, as Buffalo tops Columbus 37 minutes ago - Judge goes back to Yankees as Giants, Padres examine options 37 minutes ago - How Streaming Has Rewritten the Script for Movies 44 minutes ago - Capitals finish season-long road trip 3-2-1 to stay afloat in East 46 minutes ago - Quick Recap: Ja Morant sets franchise-record for triple doubles in win over Thunder 48 minutes ago - What kind of company do the striking HarperCollins workers face? 49 minutes ago - 'The Amazing Race' Finale: 'Big Brother' couple Derek Xiao and Claire Rehfuss win Season 34 51 minutes ago - Watch Durant, Irving combine for 62 points to lift Nets past Hornets 54 minutes ago - 2023 Original Song Contenders (Part 3) 1 hour ago - Clippers vs. Heat Odds, Pick, Prediction: Offense Likely Limited in Miami (December 8) 1 hour ago - NBA roundup: Magic halt skid with OT win over Clippers 1 hour ago - The Amazing Race 34: Derek Xiao and Claire Rehfuss Winner Interview (2022) 1 hour ago - Richmond NGA product at home with Tigers' VFL program 1 hour ago - Giannis Antetokounmpo, Since ‘The Ladder Incident’, has averaged 36 and Tied 7’2″ Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1 hour ago - Jazz Take Third Quarter Lead With Three Point Barrage 1 hour ago - Tigers trade Joe Jimenez for top-rated position player in Braves' system 1 hour ago - Knicks Light Up Injury-Riddled Hawks 1 hour ago - New York Times journalists will stage historic 24-hour strike after management and union fail to reach deal 1 hour ago - Avatar’s James Cameron on art, AI and outrage 2 hours ago - Ex-Theranos president Ramesh Balwani gets 13-year prison term in fraud case 2 hours ago - Sabres' Tage Thompson torments Blue Jackets with 5-point first period 2 hours ago - New York Times braces for 24-hour newsroom strike 2 hours ago - Exclusive For Boost Users! Stand The Chance To Win Tickets For Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] Kuala Lumpur When Redeeming RM2 Rewards 2 hours ago - America’s most Googled term in 2022 is puzzling 3 hours ago - Edey stands tall as No. 4 Boilermakers rout Hofstra 85-66 3 hours ago - KEN PERROTTE: Canadian gun-control push should concern US gun-rights advocates 3 hours ago - CTB vs WF Dream11 Prediction, Fantasy Cricket Tips, Dream11 Team, Playing XI, Pitch Report, Injury Update- The Ford Trophy 3 hours ago - Germany busts far-right cell plotting to ‘overthrow state’ 3 hours ago - Some New York Times Employees Will Go On Strike For 24 Hours 3 hours ago - Harry & Meghan: King Charles and Prince William ‘to respond to any claims’ in Netflix series 3 hours ago - Holmes' former partner gets nearly 13 years in Theranos case 3 hours ago - Tage Thompson becomes first Sabres player with four goals in a period 3 hours ago - Men’s and women’s swimming and dive both place first at Big AI Invitational 3 hours ago - 1 Key Player The LA Clippers Could Trade Soon 3 hours ago - Watch Mars get eclipsed by the moon tonight on the free webcast 3 hours ago - Theranos ex-president sentenced to 13 years for fraud 3 hours ago - Federal cop shoots one dead inside Washington DC's Metro Center station, conductor hailed for saving lives 3 hours ago - Fresh demonstrations erupt in Tehran amid local reports huge crowds are in bid to overthrow regime 3 hours ago - Theranos case: Ramesh Balwani, former partner of Holmes, gets 13-year jail 3 hours ago - 'Most amazing nightmare of my life': Inside the Rihanna press trip that descended into disaster 3 hours ago - Top 5 news stories that drew attention among our HK readers in 2022 3 hours ago - John Lennon Compared 1 of His Solo Songs to Haiku 3 hours ago - Sunny Balwani, Elizabeth Holmes’ former partner, sentenced in Theranos fraud case - WEIS 3 hours ago - iSpace Could Become First Private Company to Achieve Moon Landing 3 hours ago - British royals brace for Harry and Meghan’s Netflix broadside 3 hours ago - Harry and Meghan 'betrayed the agreement they made with the Queen,' expert claims 3 hours ago - Mariners end quiet Winter Meetings by taking Chris Clarke in Rule 5 draft 3 hours ago - The US and the Holocaust: Documentarian Ken Burns examines the failure of Roosevelt to rescue the victims of the Nazis’ Final Solution 3 hours ago - EPHRAIM HARDCASTLE: Will the King remove Prince Harry's KCVO?
free geoip