49ers vs. Cardinals Odds, Picks, and Prediction
This week’s edition of Monday Night Football will feature the San Francisco 49ers against the Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City. In this matchup, San Francisco has an opportunity to climb into a first place tie in the NFC West division standings with a victory while Arizona can pull back within one game of a playoff spot if they manage to pull-off the upset. Oddsmakers are expecting the 49ers to roll to a comfortable victory in this one, pricing San Francisco as 10-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Though many pundits question the long-term viability of under center for San Francisco, he has proven himself more than capable of keeping this offense competitive on a weekly basis. Since taking over for the injured in Week 2, San Francisco is 5-3 and ranks 8th in the NFL in offensive EPA/play. Facing a mediocre Arizona defense on Monday, Garoppolo and company should be able to put a healthy number of points on the board once again.
The most notable absence for the 49ers tonight is Emmanuel Moseley, who has not played since October 9th after being placed on injured reserve. Through the first five weeks of the campaign, with Moseley on the field, San Francisco’s defense led the NFL in EPA/play overall, and the secondary unit ranked 1st in Dropback EPA/play by a wide margin over the rest of the league. Since Week 6, this defense ranks only 23rd in overall EPA/play and 29th in Dropback EPA/play. In that span, San Francisco has not played the creme de la creme of opposing offenses, with the Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Chargers among their opponents across the last month of action. This group is more vulnerable than many bettors realize at this point in the season.
Reportedly, will miss tonight’s contest with a hamstring injury after logging only a limited participation in the final practice of the week. Tight end has also been ruled out for tonight’s contest due to a knee injury. Nevertheless, the Cardinals are not completely devoid of offensive talent for this primetime affair. In last week’s start against the Los Angeles Rams, backup quarterback completed 26-of-37 pass attempts for 238 passing yards in a winning effort. In Week 10, both and were frequent targets in this passing attack, with both receiving more than a dozen targets.
The more pressing concern for the Cardinals on Monday Night Football is their defense, which ranks only 15th in EPA/play through 10 games. Further hurting this unit is the absence of Byron Murphy this evening, who will miss this contest with a back injury. Entering play tonight, only the Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns, and Detroit Lions have allowed more points per game. This group is unlikely to improve dramatically upon any of their season-long defensive metrics against an extremely talented San Francisco offense.
The default look in many primetime games this season has been the under, due to the high percentage hit-rate in such contexts. However, bettors may be treated to a fair amount of scoring on Monday Night Football in Week 11 – even with Arizona starting a backup quarterback. The 49ers defense has regressed sharply since losing Moseley to injured reserve in Week 5, and Murphy’s absence in the secondary unit for the Cardinals only further weakens an already suspect unit. Take the over in this spot.
PICK: Over 43 (-110, DraftKings)
Image Credit: Imagn
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